What Campbell Buyers Are Actually Underwriting In Mid-2026

Campbell's headline numbers read like a familiar South Bay seller's market. Redfin put the January 2026 median at $1.9 million, up 19.6% year over year. Movoto's June 2026 list-price median came in around $1.54 million, and Houzeo pegged the sale price at roughly $1.74 million with 2.1 months of supply and homes closing at 102.45% of asking. Move-up buyers looking at those figures, then comparing them to Saratoga or Los Gatos, tend to conclude that Campbell is simply the value pocket of the West Valley.

That conclusion is only half right. Two state laws that took effect this year quietly changed what a Campbell address contains. Neither shows up in a median. Both belong in your underwriting.

The one claim to hold in mind

When you buy a house in Campbell in 2026, you are also buying a position on a small map of transit-adjacent parcels that the state has just upzoned, and you are buying it against a new pipeline of ministerially approved townhomes that will sit under the resale comps for the next several years. The price you pay for a single-family home reflects a market that has not fully priced either fact.

The three stations that redraw the map

Senate Bill 79 became operative on July 1, 2026. Within a half mile of a qualifying transit stop, cities in Santa Clara County must now allow housing projects that state law generally permits at heights up to 95 feet and up to 160 units per acre, regardless of local zoning, with additional bonuses closer in. VTA light rail counts as Tier 2 under the statute.

Campbell contains three VTA light rail stations inside city limits and sits adjacent to a fourth in San Jose that pulls parcels into the same zone:

Community Development Director Rob Eastwood told San José Spotlight that nearly a quarter of Campbell's land area falls under SB 79, and that in proportional terms Campbell may see the largest impact of any city in Santa Clara County. If every eligible parcel were built to the maximum, the city would need to absorb 40,409 additional homes on top of the 18,200 that exist today. Nobody expects that ceiling to be hit. The point is that the ceiling is now much higher than local zoning ever contemplated, and it applies to specific blocks a buyer can identify on a map.

For a buyer, the practical read is not "Campbell will triple." It is:

• A single-family lot on a residential street two blocks from downtown Campbell now carries mid-rise optionality that a similar lot in central Saratoga does not.
• A townhome inside the half-mile ring may sit next to a five-to-eight-story neighbor within a decade. That is upside for a builder-minded owner and a real preference question for a family buyer.
• The parcels most exposed are along commercial frontages first, not interior single-family streets. But interior streets inside the ring are legally eligible.

The city council passed a short-term policy on March 24 to protect historic sites inside the SB 79 zone, a provision already in state law. That is the extent of local softening so far. Councilmember Sergio Lopez, who also chairs the VTA board, has publicly framed SB 79 as a net-positive opportunity for the city's finances. Downtown Campbell Business Association president Amy Taylor, who owns Cloud City Supply on East Campbell Avenue, has raised parking and infrastructure concerns. Both views point at the same underlying fact: the map has changed.

Why the SB 684 pipeline matters more than most buyers realize

The second law reshaping the underwriting is the Starter Home Revitalization Act, originally SB 684 in 2023 and amended through AB 130 in 2025. It allows up to ten small-lot homes on eligible sites through a ministerial review that must close within 60 days. Campbell adopted an interim ordinance to implement it and, as of April 2026, was actively seeking clarification from the California Department of Housing and Community Development on what qualifies as a "vacant" parcel.

The first construction under SB 684 in California broke ground in Campbell on March 6, 2026. Mercury Lane Townhomes at 300 Redding Road is a six-unit project by AlphaX RE Capital, with units running roughly 1,400 to nearly 2,000 square feet, three or four bedrooms, and two-car garages. ABC7 reported the expected pricing at $1.1 million to $1.3 million, with move-ins scheduled for early 2027. AlphaX has publicly said it is pursuing about 20 similar Bay Area projects, including four more inside Campbell.

Read that against the resale market. A comparable existing three- or four-bedroom home in Campbell has been trading north of $1.5 million, and school-driven pockets push closer to $1.9 million. A new-construction townhome delivered on a ministerial timeline at $1.1M to $1.3M sits below every one of those comps. It is not a like-for-like substitute. It is a smaller footprint, an attached product, and a different lifestyle. But it exists, and it did not exist in the resale set two years ago.

Two implications for a 2026 buyer:

1. If your target is a starter Campbell home under $1.4M, the SB 684 pipeline is now a legitimate alternate lane. Waiting six to twelve months for a new-build interest list may deliver better inventory than chasing the thin supply of aging entry-level houses at similar prices.
2. If you are buying a single-family home for long-term hold, understand that entry-level demand may increasingly split between your resale product and this new small-lot townhome product. That does not damage single-family values, but it does put a soft ceiling on the entry-level tier that resale sellers have not yet reckoned with.

The downtown wildcard at 600 E. Campbell Ave.

The parcel bordered by Gilman and Dillon avenues, empty since Paul Del Grande Auto Parts and On the Corner Music were demolished in 2021, is under review for a Cresleigh Homes proposal of roughly 90 homes across five to six stories, with about 5,000 square feet of ground-floor retail, 13 affordable units, and around 111 parking spaces on a one-acre site. Under Campbell's streamlined housing process, the project does not require City Council approval. Under the city's own housing plan, the site could stretch to 108 units.

For anyone buying within a two-block radius of the Pruneyard right now, this project is the closest thing to a known-known. It will change the sightline, the traffic pattern on East Campbell Avenue, and the retail mix. Buyers focused on "walk to dinner" premiums should decide whether a mid-rise neighbor on that block enhances or dilutes the specific version of downtown they are paying for.

Reading the price data through this lens

Loqol's neighborhood breakdown of Campbell puts Pruneyard/Dry Creek homes closer to $3M and East Campbell townhomes near $1.1M, with the citywide January median at $1.9M per Redfin. Houzeo's March 2026 numbers show 65.38% of homes selling above asking, down from 72% a year earlier, and price reductions dropping from 23.68% to 20%. The sale-to-list ratio slipped 5.92% year over year while still landing at 102.45%.

The direction inside those numbers matters. Fewer over-asking sales and a lower sale-to-list ratio, in a market where the median is still climbing, is what a market looks like when supply expectations are shifting even before physical supply arrives. SB 79 and SB 684 are supply expectations. Buyers writing offers today are, in aggregate, still competitive, but the days when Pruneyard-adjacent listings routinely cleared 108% of list appear to be softening into something more disciplined.

That is useful. A buyer working with an advisor who can price against the actual pipeline, station by station, is negotiating in a different market than one anchored on last year's frenzy.

The questions to run through before you write an offer

• Where does the parcel sit relative to the three in-city VTA stations and the Bascom station adjacent to city limits?
• If it is inside the half-mile ring, what is the current zoning versus the new SB 79 floor, and which direction is the closest commercial frontage?
• Is there an active SB 684 or streamlined project within three blocks that will deliver during your first five years of ownership?
• If you are targeting entry-level, have you looked at the AlphaX pipeline and the 600 E. Campbell Ave. project alongside resale?
• For hillside or fire-mapped exceptions elsewhere in the region, does your insurance path clear before you tie up the deposit? This is a Los Gatos concern more than a Campbell one, but worth naming.

FAQ

Does SB 79 mean my Campbell single-family street will get high-rises? Not most streets. The law applies within a half mile of qualifying transit stops, and commercial frontages along Winchester, East Campbell Avenue, and Hamilton are the first parcels developers will target. Interior residential blocks inside the ring are eligible under state law but face different economics.

Are SB 684 townhomes considered new construction for financing? Yes. They are ground-up small-lot homes with tentative maps and typical new-construction documentation. Loan products and warranty treatment mirror other new builds, though timelines depend on the ministerial review pace.

Will Campbell prices drop because of this new pipeline? Unlikely in the aggregate over the next 24 months. Supply from SB 79 will take years to materialize, and SB 684 output remains small in unit count. The near-term effect is more nuanced pricing at the entry-level tier and more optionality on transit-adjacent parcels.

Campbell's market in 2026 rewards buyers who read the map, not just the median. If you would like a parcel-by-parcel look at how these two laws touch a specific street, a specific school pocket, or a specific price band, Renovato & Co. is here to walk that map with you. Let's Begin.